Denner's Take on Fannie & Freddie

I have followed Robert Denner's comments on and off for a couple of years. He is readable and well-informed, with a fresh viewpoint you won't find in your local paper. His slant is contrarian/bearish and he is very knowledgeable about Peak Oil ~ rare indeed. His writing is like cod liver oil ~ goes down nasty but is very good for you.

Be sure and click over and read his whole post.

From Daily Economic Update

QUOTE This doesn’t necessarily mean that the government will have to dole out 4 trillion dollars but it does mean that they will now backstop the rest of this collapse ON YOUR DIME and the first payment due is going to be about 200 billion dollars. How does our “free market” friends on Wall Street and all the other markets in the world react TO THIS SOCIALIST INTERVENTION IN THE MARKETS?? Why you guessed it, they are up on average about 3 to 5% this morning and the US markets which open in 45 minutes are up a stagering 260 points in premarket trading which will probably equate to a 300 to 500 point gain on the day.
You see watching charts can be a good thing for you .. The markets crossed over a very important mark on Thursday and that signalled to me that something had to give. As usual I BET ON THEM DOING THE RIGHT THING FOR ONCE and as usual I was proven wrong. Instead of just letting reality finally rule on the markets and to let the blood flow, they once again deferred the pain and they bailed out the Chinese and Japanese and all the other 60 some odd National Banks. NOW DO YOU SEE why the dollar went up and why I called it manipulation. This was a tit for tat move that has been in the works for weeks now evidently.
YOU MUST UNDERSTAND NOW THAT YOUR MONEY IS NOTHING TO THEM!!!!!!! The money sitting in the markets right now is nothing more than pure unadulterated GAMBLING and cannot be considered any thing close to an investment. Investments are good things that help to pave the way to the future. They are conservative uses of money and are meant to build a future that is bright and optimistic. If you have money in the markets(and that includes your 401k money) you must understand that it is nothing but a gamble at this point. If they, with the wave of a pen, can do what they have done this weekend, what do you think they can do to your “investments”. UNQUOTE
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Fannie, Freddie, The Banks and The Government

In trying to better understand the Fannie Mae - Freddie Mac mortgage debacle through reading news today I came across this impassioned tome calling for us to, like the doughty French, take to the streets to avoid being bankrupted by our own apathy and our weaselly government. This is a longish read but I encourage you to bite the bullet and read it. The knowledge may help you and yours. These giants of American business and finance aren't going down without dragging a lot of us with them. The current administration has argued for years, as part of its grandiose vision of an “ownership society”, that more Americans have been able to join the ranks of home ownership. They failed to note that it was being accomplished through artificially low interest rates, gimmick - sleazy mortgages, and non-existent lending restraint. So much for George W. Bush’s “ownership society”. Fasten your seat belts.

Here's a sample:

QUOTE Even worse, Fannie and Freddie, who guarantee their own bond issues, started buying their own paper. That is, they are writing insurance on a hurricane when they are both the writer of the insurance and the loss payee. This looks brilliant in that the "expense" of providing that insurance effectively disappears, thereby making the entirety of the spread they get from their source-of-funds to their paper issue theirs to keep, but that's the wrong way to look at it.
In fact that paper is uninsured, because the money comes from one hand goes to the other, attached to the same body.
Where were the regulators? Congress? Intentionally asleep. Remember that back in 2003 and 2004 both firms were found to have improperly accounted for their results. This should have led to an immediate clampdown and forced deleveraging to no more than 10:1 on an audited basis.
It did not, and in fact neither firm timely filed accounting statements until last year, more than three years after the "errors" were discovered.
But for Congress, The Fed and OFHEO looking the other way on purpose most of the Housing Bubble could not have happened, as the money necessary to fuel it simply would not have been available.
Now we are faced with the reality - Fannie and Freddie, under fair value accounting rules, are insolvent (if you listen to Bill Poole.) What does that mean? It means that if Fannie and Freddie were to sell their assets and net it out today, you'd wind up with a negative number. That is, its assets are less than its liabilities.
The question now comes down to "what do we do about this?"
There are several choices, all of which will have bad side effects. It is critical, however, that we understand those side effects and choose the path forward that represents the least risk to the broader economy and to the government, not just the most expedient or the one that the people who would lose will scream most loudly about. UNQUOTE

"NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANICAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES. "

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